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Wednesday, August 12, 2015

CNN Breaking News

Hillary Clinton is firmly in the lead among Iowa caucusgoers, holding a 50% to 31% lead over upstart Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to the first CNN/ORC Poll of those voters in the state this cycle. Vice President Joe Biden, who has yet to decide whether to make a run for the presidency, lands in third place with 12%, with the rest of the field at 1% or less.

The race reflects two broad divides among Iowa's Democratic voters: a gender gap and an ideological split. Among women, Clinton tops Sanders by more than 30 points, 58% to 26%. Among men, the two are even: 38% back Clinton, 37% Sanders. Likewise, among the party's moderates, 57% back Clinton, 21% Sanders, while liberals split 46% for Clinton to 41% for Sanders. Liberals are most apt to say they are firm in their choice: Fully 42% say they've definitely decided whom to support, compared with 30% overall.

Should Biden decide not to run, the poll suggests Clinton would get a bigger boost than Sanders. Reallocating Biden's supporters to their second choice candidate, 58% would back Clinton, 32% Sanders, 2% former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, 1% former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb and less than 1% would back former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee.

The results came from 429 likely Democratic caucusgoers. The poll was conducted August 7-11, with a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

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